SpaceX is facing another public market test as early investors gain the ability to sell more shares, but the stock’s biggest pressure may have already arrived before the lockup expired.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down how SpaceX’s rolling lockup expiration works, why IPO lockups often pressure stocks before shares become available, and what the company’s expanding public float could mean for future trading. They also discuss the risks of investing in pre-IPO shares through special purpose vehicles, including a Wall Street Journal report about an investor who thought he owned SpaceX shares that may have been sold before the IPO. Plus, they look at Google’s sudden AI leadership shakeup, why Gemini may be losing ground to OpenAI and Anthropic, whether AI models are becoming commoditized, and what fast food earnings from Burger King, McDonald’s, and Taco Bell reveal about consumer behavior.

Kevin Warsh says the Fed is serious about inflation, but markets are still trying to figure out what that means in practice.

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti debate whether Warsh needs to do a better job explaining the Fed’s inflation strategy, why forward guidance may have distorted bond markets, and whether the Fed should raise rates more aggressively to prove its commitment to price stability. They also discuss whether the economy is actually fragile, why AI data center spending may keep growth supported, and whether housing could become a stronger economic driver again in 2027. Plus, they look at stock market seasonality, Michael Burry’s warning about a potential 1987-style decline, what Uber may reveal about consumer spending that McDonald’s does not, and the latest confusing headlines around a possible Strait of Hormuz shipping deal.

The labor market is still holding up, but fresh ADP data suggests the rebound may not be as strong as investors hoped.

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti break down the latest ADP jobs report, why hiring looks modest rather than resurgent, and how the Fed has to separate short-term labor weakness from longer-term structural changes in the economy. They also discuss renewed hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, why oil prices and crack spreads are sending mixed signals, and whether China’s refinery activity could point to something more durable. Plus, they look at SpaceX’s first earnings report, why traditional valuation tools may not apply to Elon Musk’s companies, and how banks are trying to offload debt tied to the next wave of AI data center construction.

Kevin Warsh is trying to change how the Fed communicates, and bond markets may have to adjust to a world with less hand-holding from the central bank.

Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti debate Warsh’s approach to Fed messaging, why bond traders are reacting so strongly, and whether the Fed’s long era of forward guidance has distorted price discovery in long-term interest rates. They also preview SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, why Elon Musk’s ability to sell the future may matter more than the numbers, and what AMD earnings could reveal about the AI chip trade. Plus, they discuss the strengths and drawbacks of the 401(k), why retirement planning has become more complicated for individuals, the yen intervention’s impact on Japanese exporters like Toyota, and whether Massachusetts’ economy is really in as much trouble as critics suggest.

The S&P 500 is pushing to new highs, but the profit boom behind the rally is raising questions about how much of the AI story is backed by durable cash flow.

Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti break down why earnings growth across Big Tech looks impressive on the surface, why free cash flow matters more than headline profits, and whether the massive investment in AI infrastructure will actually benefit the hyperscalers spending the money. They also discuss the latest JOLTS report, why the labor market looks like a low-hire, low-fire environment, and what Friday’s jobs report could mean for the Fed. Plus, they explain why the U.S. stepped in to support Japan’s yen, how currency intervention could affect bond markets, and why Kevin Warsh’s approach to the Fed is forcing bond traders to rethink how they price long-term rates.

SpaceX is preparing to report earnings as a public company for the first time, giving investors their clearest look yet at the businesses behind one of the market’s most closely watched valuations.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong preview SpaceX’s first earnings report, including how the company plans to break out its space, connectivity, and AI businesses, why Starlink may be the most important revenue driver, and why heavy AI spending could raise the same questions facing the rest of Big Tech. They also discuss the latest pause in U.S. strikes on Iran, why oil remains difficult to trade as inventories keep falling, and what this week’s jobs and manufacturing data could mean for markets. Plus, they look at a major Bitcoin cold storage hack, why some crypto investors may have lost everything despite trying to do the right thing, whether the post-pandemic travel boom is actually fading, and why helicopter parents are now showing up in their adult children’s careers.

The market is still trying to sort out what Big Tech earnings really say about artificial intelligence, valuations, and whether investors are paying too much for future growth.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why major tech stocks are swinging sharply after earnings, what the reactions to Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft reveal about AI spending, and why volatility in some of the world’s largest companies points to a less healthy market backdrop. They also discuss the latest pause in U.S. strikes on Iran, why oil remains difficult to trade as inventories shrink, and how energy shortages could become a bigger problem if the conflict continues. Plus, they look at Kevin Warsh’s push to reduce the number of Fed meetings, the debate over whether the Fed should listen more to “normal people,” and why the U.S. stepped in to support Japan’s yen.

Elon Musk may be looking to bring Tesla and SpaceX closer together, but a potential deal could raise major questions about China, defense contracts, corporate control, and just how much value is tied to Musk himself.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss reports that Tesla may sell its China business to clear the way for a potential SpaceX merger, why the combined company could resemble a Korean-style industrial conglomerate, and why Tesla and SpaceX may be more dependent on one person than any other major companies in the market. They also break down rising bond yields, climbing mortgage rates, Big Oil’s surge in profits, and why capping oil company profits is not as simple as it sounds. Plus, they look at the Goldilocks inflation narrative, the wild surprises that shaped markets this week, the Strait of Hormuz autocorrect that stole the show, and why some drivers are going to extremes to avoid new car technology.

Big Tech earnings are moving markets sharply as investors try to figure out whether the AI trade still has another leg higher or whether the volatility is warning of something more fragile.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the sharp swings in semiconductor stocks, why major tech names like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are seeing outsized moves after earnings, and why the broader market still looks uncertain despite several big rebounds. They also discuss Amazon’s strong cloud growth and rising CapEx, Apple’s disappointing guidance tied to supply constraints and memory chip costs, and why Apple’s slower approach to AI resembles Toyota’s patience during the EV boom. Plus, they look at the blowup of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, Todd Lutsky’s explanation of irrevocable Medicaid trusts, and why new reports about Anthropic’s AI models hacking companies raise serious concerns about agentic AI risks.